As the 2024 election gets closer, more candidates are beginning to announce their candidacy for President of the United States. Since 1908, Mock Convention has attempted to predict which of those candidates will win the nomination for the party out of power, with an impressive 74% accuracy. However, they may be facing an unprecedented challenge in this election cycle, as identity politics, growing scandals, and even a war on the truth itself plague the Republican party. Traditional means of research may not be adequate to gain sufficient insight into how Republican voters will choose the nominee. In light of that, Mock Con has decided to shift gears and research controversial elections before 1908, and predict the winners of those contests, hoping there may be a pattern to how people vote during times of crisis.
In order to avoid any bias in the nomination process, Mock Convention researchers were asked not to look up who actually won, and to avoid reading any books that might reveal the winners. Over Washington Break, research teams were hard at work, and they were generous enough to provide The Radish with some early predictions ahead of the formal conventions:
1860- We predict a contentious battle between Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass for the Republican nomination. While Lincoln certainly has the street credit and political acumen to convince people he is electable in the general election, we think Douglass will carry the vote. He was the most photographed man of the 19th century, and we know the media always plays a pivotal role in a popularity contest. Plus, his aggressive stance against slavery and background as an escaped slave is more likely to inspire Republican turnout than Lincoln’s very calculated and inconstant position against slavery.
1876- We predict Robert E. Lee to rise from the grave to claim the Democratic nomination. While he was the general of the Confederate Army, Lee has a mysterious ability to charm voters. For instance, he convinced the College Republicans that he is comparable to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., which is a true feat. There have also been rumors about his ghost sneaking into the Marriage Pact pool. His only competition is Samuel Tilden, but it doesn’t seem like Tilden’s plan of pulling federal troops out of the South to end Reconstruction will ever fly.
However, Mock Con’s most interesting call was for the election of 1800, a time when there were no political party conventions. Instead, researchers predicted who would win the general election:
1800- We predict Alexander Hamilton will win against Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr in a close race. While the Reynold’s Pamphlet may have been a setback, many politicians have survived worse scandals. Avery Brundage became chairman of the International Olympic Committee in 1952 despite collaborating with the Nazi regime to prevent America from withdrawing from the 1936 Olympics in Berlin. Donald Trump survived two divorces, an affair with a porn star, using campaign finances as hush money, using the Bible as a prop, inciting a coup, misuse of classified documents, tax fraud and more. Plus, Aaron Burr is not forthcoming about his beliefs so no one trusts him, and they see Jefferson as elitist.
Arun Ghosh
The Radish 